Trade 29 : NZD/USD – Short – 0.83021 – +0.6 pips

13:23  22/02/2012

NZD/USD has been in a fairly reliable uptrend since mid-December as can be seen on the following daily chart (also, see Trade 27).

However, the original trend line has now been broken, and with the bulls failing to fully capitalise on the recent strong pin bar, it would seem it is the bears turn to pull off a retracement of some sort or possibly even a reversal.

I opened a short order at 13:14 at 0.83021 when NZD/USD had just passed through the S1 Daily Pivot level after the bulls were beaten back in the previous hour. I set a stop just above the high of the previous hourly bar (before the bulls were beaten back).

(NZD/USD Daily Chart as of 13:23 on 22/02/2012 – green arrow indicates entry)

(NZD/USD 1 Hourly Chart as of 13:21 on 22/02/2012 – green arrow indicates entry)

As I type this, NZD/USD is trading at 0.82839 for +15.3 pips, having reached the S2 Daily Pivot level (0.82769) before retracing slightly.

(NZD/USD Daily Chart as of 13:47 on 22/02/2012 – green arrow indicates entry)

Data for US Existing Home Sales is released in just over an hour at 15:00 so I will be tightening my stop significantly around this time to lock in some pips in anticipation of the possibility of a surge in volatility pending a deviation from the forecasted figure or simply noteworthy figures (good or  bad)…

(Courtesy of Forex Factory and their fantastic Economic Calendar – see links over on the right hand side)

=====Update=====

Stop moved to break-even (+0.6 pips – 0.83015) just before the US release due to the aforementioned reasons.

Price continued downwards following the release to a low of 0.82625 before retracing within the hour and hitting my stop at 0.83015 at 15:59 for +0.6 pips.

(NZD/USD Daily Chart as of 16:28 on 22/02/2012 – green arrows indicates entry and exit, with the green line representing the trade itself)

Trade 28 : USD/CAD – Short – 1.01086 – -26.3 pips

19/01/2012 : To  be updated in a few hours…

=====Updated=====

16:00  19/02/2012 (substantially more than “a few hours” later…)

I opened a short trade at 1.01086 at 01:16 on 19/01/2012 following the apparent break of the USD/CAD triangle pattern, with a stop just inside the triangle.

(USD/CAD Daily Chart as of 13:45 on 19/01/2012 – green arrow indicates entry)

(USD/CAD 4 Hourly Chart as of 13:48 on 19/01/2012 – green arrow indicates entry)

USD/CAD soon retraced back within the confines of the triangle indicating a false break had taken place. This hit my stop at 1.01349 at 02:41 on 20/12/2012 for -26.3 pips.

It wasn’t long however before a breakout took place and after testing the support-come-resistance lower edge of the triangle twice, price is currently trading just below 1.0000.

(USD/CAD 4 Hourly Chart as of 15:45 on 19/02/2012 – orange line represents the trade)

(USD/CAD Daily Chart as of 15:49 on 19/02/2012 – orange line represents the trade)

Trade 27 : NZD/USD – Long – 0.7926 – +89.1 pips

14:56  18/01/2012 (Trade Opened 11:53  16/01/2012)

Looking at the daily charts, NZD/USD appeared to be in a fairly respected uptrend, with the trend line having racked up three touches thus far. Couple this with its then imminence to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a long position seemed to be in the making!

I opened a long position at 0.7926 at 11:53 on 16/01/2012 with a stop just below the monthly pivot level (long white horizontal line labelled “P”). A stop below the trend line would have been preferred but this would have lowered the risk:reward ratio too much to be worth trading.

NZD/USD Daily Chart as of 14:51 on 18/01/2012 – green arrow indicates entry.

(Note: Chart shows “average entry” as order was filled by two separate positions).

At the time of writing, NZD/USD is between the R1 and R2 daily pivot levels, with 130.9 pips profit.

=====Update=====

13:33  19/01/2012

After reaching a high of 0.80809 on 18/01/2012, NZD/USD fell rather sharpish following the release of New Zealands CPI figure (-0.3%), hitting my stop at 0.80151, closing the trade for a profit of 89.1 pips (around 3.6% increase in equity).

NZD/USD Daily Chart as of 13:29 on 18/01/2012.

NZD/USD 4 Hourly Chart as of 13:32 on 18/01/2012.

Recommencement of Trading (again…)

Now that I finally have access to the internet again I can recommence trading (there is only so much analysis you can do on a phone).

Catch-up analysis is needed first though…trades to follow…

Trade 26 : EUR/USD – Long – 1.34000 – -53.8 pips

00:44  08/12/2011

It can be seen that EUR/USD is trading around the 1.34000 mark, itself a reasonably reliable round number. The weekly pivot point also lies very close at 1.33975 resulting in fairly strong confluence. Bearish moves past this level yesterday have been forced back, one of which resulted in a moderate double-bar-low-higher-close formation forming which adds strength to the bullish estimation. This 1.34000 level also ties in with previous resistance on 28/11/2011.

I entered a long trade at 1.34000 at 00:14 on 08/12/2011 with a stop of 49.5 pips at 1.33505 below the short term bullish trend line, 76.4% Fib ret, and the lows of the previous break of this level. A quick check reveals relatively low ATR so this stop should be sufficient…

Due to the long term bearish bias (yellow trend line), this trade will be going against the trend and so will not be open for more than a day or two (or even less depending on the circumstances). I will be aiming for the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.34564, at which point I will close half the positions and move my stop accordingly.

To complicate matters further, there is also a variety of releases tomorrow for the Euro (chiefly the ECB press conference at 13:30 (GMT)) and US Dollar (unemployment claims data also released at 13:30).

(EUR/USD 4 Hourly Chart as of 00:17 on 08/12/2011)

(EUR/USD Daily Chart as of 00:19 on 08/12/2011)

As I complete this post EUR/USD is trading at 1.34038 (+3.8 pips)…

=====Update=====

19:52  08/12/2011

Annoyingly, although my analysis proved correct I was unable to close the trade at my target price due to being engaged in prior engagements (ie. learning about the multiplier effect) until the US news release had taken its toll and pushed price down past my stop.

Following the opening of the trade, price respected the 1.3400 level fairly well, only dropping below for around 2 hours before breaking back through again to the upside. Price climbed slightly until the ECB press conference, when price rose to 1.34611 (past my take profit area ). This was soon reversed due to the positive US unemployment claims data release and price fell suddenly down below the 76.4% Fib ret, reaching a low of 1.32912, hitting my stop at 14:07 for a 53.8 pip loss.

Due to my methodology of letting profitable trades run their course, I did not have a limit order in place to sell EUR/USD at my take profit area. With this being identified as a short term trade against the long term trend (see original post), I should have really put a limit order in place, particularly with the 38.2% Fib ret where it is.

Never mind, I shall take note and rectify this in future counter-trend trades…

(EUR/USD 1 Hourly Chart as at 19:46 on 08/12/2011 – red line represents the trade, with the arrows representing open and close)

Trade 25 : AUD/JPY – Short – 79.938 – +34.3 pips

01:19  05/12/2011

I’ll write up this trade properly once my deadlines have passed (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Short order opened at 79.938 at 00:25 on 05/12/2011 due to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and round number confluence – not particularly strong but we’ll see how it holds…

=====Update=====

00:01 07/12/2011

After wiping clear all of my charts on Sunday night (04/12/2011) and starting afresh regarding support/resistance and Fibonacci retracements, it became clear that AUD/JPY was trading very close to a confluence of a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, round number at  80.0000 and Wednesday’s high. Whilst not a very strong confluence, due to the gap between the levels, I opened a short order at 79.938 at 00:25 on 05/12/2011 with a 50 pip stop loss just above Fridays high.

(AUD/JPY Daily Chart as of 00:30 on 05/12/2011)

AUD/JPY started with an initial bearish move which soon reversed and tested the aforementioned Fibonacci retracement at 80.176 with a high of 80.183. Price bounced off this level as expected and broke through a 50% Fib ret (from an earlier, greater move) to a low of 78.919 (+101.9 pips). This Fib ret then turned to resistance as price rose to test this level, which triggered my manually tightened stop at 79.595 for a 34.3 pip profit (1.63% equity increase – sub par risk/reward ratio for this one).

Price is currently testing this 50% Fib ret at 79.647.

(AUD/JPY 1 Hourly Chart as of 00:28 on 07/12/2011 – the orange line represents the trade).

Trade 24 : AUD/JPY – Long – 75.232 – +9.4 pips

01:37 27/11/2011

This trade was opened on 23/11/2011 and closed on 25/11/2011 but I have only just found time to create this post due to the sheer number of deadlines I have over the next week. I shall attempt to create this retrospectively…

08:13 23/11/2011

Looking at the daily chart for AUD/JPY, it can be seen that price is currently retracing the previous bullish movement and approaching the 75.000 level. This level is slightly below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level calculated from the previous bullish move. To make things even better, an S2 pivot level is also just above 75.000.

I opened a long order at 08:13 on 23/11/2011 at 75.232 in anticipation that price would bounce off this predicted strong support level and rally for a reasonable amount of pips before dropping again.

=====Update=====

01:37 27/11/2011

Price fluctuated about the 75.000 level, repeatedly switching between being a support and resistance level before making a move upwards between 13:00 – 15:00 on 25/11/2011 to a high of 75.920 (+68.8 pips). I tightened my stop at this point to just above break even at 75.326 (+9.4 pips) to lock in some small amount of profit as the close of trading for the weekend was fast approaching.

Price then dropped back below the previous high (75.463) from 24/11/2011 to a low of 75.284, hitting my stop at 75.326 and closing the trade for a measly 9.4 pip profit (0.4% growth in equity). Not quite as profitable as the previous two trades, but a profit none the less – as long as its a profit its not a loss!

AUD/JPY was trading at 75.380 before trading closed for the weekend.

(AUD/JPY 1 Hourly Chart as of 02:55 on 27/11/2011 – orange line represents the trade)

(AUD/JPY Daily Chart as of 02:56 on 27/11/2011 – orange line represents the trade)
=====Update=====
00:25 28/11/2011
Typically, AUD/JPY opened at 75.846 and rose up to a high of 76.473, before dropping to the current price of 76.148.
The move was as predicted then, which is some consolation even though I only took 9.4 pips of it.
There is a good chance that AUD/JPY will close the gap left by the Friday close and Sunday night open, so the bullish move may end sooner than expected…